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Dark Side of Valuation, The

Valuing Young, Distressed, and Complex Businesses

 E-book Engels 2018 9780134854205
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The Definitive Guide to Valuing Hard-to-Value Companies: Fully Revised for Today’s Financial Markets

Valuing money-making companies that have long histories and established business models is straightforward. It is when you encounter difficult-to-value companies that you feel the urge to go over to the dark side of valuation—where you abandon first principles and create new metrics. Aswath Damodaran looks at a range of these companies, from start-ups in new businesses to distressed companies, from banks facing regulatory turmoil to commodity firms, and from emerging market upstarts to multinationals that spread across geographies and businesses. With each grouping, he helps you examine the call of the dark side and its practices and frameworks to value these firms.

To answer these questions, Aswath looks at companies across the life cycle and in different markets, from Uber and Shake Shack at one end of the spectrum to Vale, Royal Dutch, and United Technologies at the other end.

In the process, you learn how to
Deal with “abnormally low” and negative risk-free rates in valuation Adapt to dynamic and changing risk premiums Value young companies that are disrupting existing businesses Analyze commodity and cyclical companies across cycles Value a company as the sum of its parts or as an aggregation of its users/subscribers and customers Determine the difference between pricing and valuation, and why some investments can only be priced

Specificaties

ISBN13:9780134854205
Taal:Engels
Bindwijze:e-book
Uitgever:Pearson Education

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Inhoudsopgave

Preface to the Third Edition&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; xx <br> Chapter 1&nbsp; The Dark Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1 <br>Foundations of Value&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1 <br>Valuation Across Time&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7 <br>Valuation Across the Life Cycle&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 9 <br>Valuation Across the Business Spectrum&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 15 <br>The Dark Side of Valuation Beckons&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 23 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 26 <br> PART I:&nbsp; ENLIGHTENMENT: THE TOOLS<br>Chapter 2&nbsp; Intrinsic Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 29 <br>Discounted Cash Flow Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 29 <br>Variations on DCF Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 63 <br>What Do Intrinsic Valuation Models Tell Us?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 73 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 74 <br> Chapter 3&nbsp; Probabilistic Valuation: Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees, and Simulations&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 75 <br>Scenario Analysis&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 75 <br>Decision Trees&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 79 <br>Simulations&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 88 <br>An Overall View of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 101 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 104 <br> Chapter 4&nbsp; Relative Valuation/Pricing&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 105 <br>What Is Relative Valuation?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 105 <br>The Ubiquity of Relative Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 107 <br>Reasons for Popularity and Potential Pitfalls&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 107 <br>Standardized Values and Multiples&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 109 <br>The Four Basic Steps of Using Multiples&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 111 <br>Reconciling Relative and Intrinsic Valuations&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 131 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 132 <br> Chapter 5&nbsp; Real Options Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 133 <br>The Essence of Real Options&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 133 <br>Real Options, Risk-Adjusted Value, and Probabilistic Assessments&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 135 <br>Real Options Examples&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 137 <br>Caveats for Real Options&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 153 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 155 <br>Appendix: Basics of Options and Option Pricing&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 156 <br> PART II:&nbsp; THE DARK SIDE OF MACRO INPUTS <br> Chapter 6&nbsp; A Shaky Base: A “Risky” Risk-Free Rate&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 169 <br>What Is a Risk-Free Asset?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 169 <br>Why Do Risk-Free Rates Matter?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 170 <br>Estimating a Risk-Free Rate&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 171 <br>Issues in Estimating Risk-Free Rates&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 180 <br>Closing Thoughts on Risk-Free Rates&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 194 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 196 <br>Appendix 6.1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 196 <br> Chapter 7&nbsp; Risky Ventures: Assessing the Price of Risk&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 199 <br>Why Do Risk Premiums Matter?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 199 <br>What Are the Determinants of Risk Premiums?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 202 <br>Standard Approaches for Estimating Risk Premiums&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 204 <br>Equity Risk Premiums&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 205 <br>Default Spreads&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 207 <br>Problem Scenarios&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 208 <br>The Dark Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 209 <br>The Light Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 210 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 226 <br>Appendix 7.1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 227 <br> Chapter 8&nbsp; Macro Matters: The Real Economy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 231 <br>Growth in the Real Economy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 231 <br>&nbsp; The Dark Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 237 <br>&nbsp; The Light Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 238 <br>Expected Inflation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 239 <br>&nbsp; The Dark Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 246 <br>&nbsp; The Light Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 247 <br>Exchange Rates&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 248 <br>&nbsp; The Dark Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 253 <br>&nbsp; The Light Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 255 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 256 <br> PART III:&nbsp; THE DARK SIDE ACROSS THE LIFE CYCLE<br>Chapter 9&nbsp; Baby Steps: Young and Start-Up Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 259 <br>Young Companies in the Economy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 259 <br>Valuation Issues&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 263 <br>The Dark Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 268 <br>The Light Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 275 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 321 <br> Chapter 10&nbsp; Shooting Stars: Valuing Growth Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 323 <br>Growth Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 323 <br>Characteristics of Growth Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 326 <br>Valuation Issues&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 328 <br>The Dark Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 333 <br>The Light Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 343 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 375 <br> Chapter 11&nbsp; The Grown-Ups: Mature Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 377 <br>Mature Companies in the Economy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 377 <br>Valuation Issues&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 380 <br>The Dark Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 384 <br>Relative Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 391 <br>The Light Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 392 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 430 <br> Chapter 12&nbsp; Winding Down: Declining Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 431 <br>Declining Companies in the Economy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 431 <br>Valuation Issues&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 433 <br>The Dark Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 438 <br>The Light Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 446 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 491 <br> PART IV:&nbsp; THE DARK SIDE ACROSS COMPANY TYPES<br>Chapter 13&nbsp; Ups and Downs: Cyclical and Commodity Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 493 <br>The Setting&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 493 <br>The Dark Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 496 <br>The Light Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 502 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 524 <br> Chapter 14&nbsp; Mark to Market: Valuing Financial Services Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 525 <br>Financial Services Firms: The Big Picture&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 525 <br>Characteristics of Financial Services Firms&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 528 <br>The Dark Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 532 <br>The Light Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 536 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 560 <br> Chapter 15&nbsp; Invisible Investments: Valuing Firms with Intangible Assets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 561 <br>Firms with Intangible Assets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 561 <br>The Dark Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 567 <br>The Light Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 572 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 604 <br> Chapter 16&nbsp; Volatility Rules: Emerging-Market Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 607 <br>The Role of Emerging-Market Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 607 <br>The Dark Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 610 <br>The Light Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 614 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 639 <br> Chapter 17&nbsp; Going to Pieces: Disaggregated Value&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 641 <br>Aggregation versus Disaggregation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 641 <br>Multinational Conglomerates&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 642 <br>The Dark Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 648 <br>The Light Side of Valuation&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 651 <br>User/Subscriber/Customer Companies&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 677 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 694 <br> Chapter 18&nbsp; The Cynic’s Corner: Value versus Price&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 695 <br>Value versus Price&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 695 <br>Investing versus Trading&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 696 <br>The Right Approach&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 699 <br>Categorizing Investments&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 702 <br>The Questionable Investments&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 716 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 731 <br> PART V:&nbsp; THE FINALE<br>Chapter 19&nbsp; The Jedi Way: Vanquishing the Dark Side&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 733 <br>Enlightening Propositions&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 733 <br>Conclusion&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 742 <br> Index&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 743 <br>

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